We’re the peak of the 11-year solar cycle, so double-check your GPS, and watch where you’re going.
On Thursday, the sun unleashed a massive solar flare (see video ofthe flare and how its effects have been moving toward Earth). Solar flares can disrupt radio communications, including devices that use Global Positioning System technology, such as cell phones, airplanes and car navigation systems.
John Bogdan, director of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center, told The Associated Press that a number of such blasts is expected over the next three to five years — and the biggest flares are yet to come. On a scale of one to five, he likened this week’s flare to “probably a two or three.”
This week’s flare (called a “coronal mass ejection”) registered M9.3 on the “Richter scale of flares,” about the highest level in the “medium” category. Larger flares that fall into the “X” category can cause global radio blackouts, but large M-class flares also can cause radio disruptions.
This is one of a series of recent bouts of severe space weather, as the solar cycle approaches solar maximum in 2013. Other major flares came in February and June, and more may follow. A good place to follow solar activity is SpaceWeather.com.
Showing posts tagged EMP
Recent solar flare may disrupt your GPS - CNN.com
China Looks to Undermine U.S. Power, With ‘Assassin’s Mace’ | Danger Room | Wired.com
EMP is also falls under this category.
Could China wipe out an American military advantage with a simple black box? Joshua Cooper Ramo’s thought-provoking book The Age of the Unthinkable challenges all kinds of conventional thinking about everything from venture capital to military strategy. One section caught my eye in particular, about how the Chinese might neutralize American air superiority, using a type of weapon known an “Assassin’s Mace.” The specific device in question is an unassuming little case; how worried should we be?
U.S. airpower depends on the ability to overcome surface-to-air missile (SAM) defenses, and one of the key weapons for this role is the AGM-88 High Speed Anti-radiation Missile (HARM), which homes in on radar emissions. (You can see them, under the F/A-18’s wings in the picture, above.) The defenders can either turn off their radar, thus blinding themselves, or have it destroyed. This is where the black box that Ramo found at a military trade show in Zhuhai in 2002 comes in:
“…packed inside were several thousand microtransmitters and when you plugged the device in and turned it on, it broadcast signals – 10,000 of them – on the frequency of a SAM site. From the perspective of an American pilot – or , more precisely, the perspective of his HARM missile looking for a ‘lock’ on a SAM radar signal – this meant an air-to-ground picture that looked like 10,001 SAM signals, only one of which was real…”
Ramo suggests that if defenders have these black boxes then the U.S. aircraft would be helpless against enemy SAMs, and air superiority would be lost at stroke.
This is just one example of Beijing’s “Assassin’s Mace” family of weaponry that’s been much discussed in both Chinese and American military circles. The Pentagon defines the Maces as technologies that might afford an inferior military an advantage in a conflict with a superior power. In this view, an Assassin’s Mace is anything which provides a cheap means of countering an expensive weapon. Other examples might include Chinese anti-satellite weapons, which might instantly knock out U.S. space assets, or aconventional ballistic missile, designed to take out a supercarrier and all its aircraft in one hit. It’s an interesting contrast to the perspective of the American arms industry, which can end up spending vast amounts countering low-tech, low-cost threats like mines and IEDs.
Report: China building electromagnetic pulse weapons for use against U.S. carriers - Washington Times
You know I am skeptical of EMP and consider it a “high impact, low probability” threat. However, reports like this show an increased probability since it’s actively being pursued by our biggest potential enemy. Will keep watching. Read the whole story though.
China’s military is developing electromagnetic pulse weapons that Beijing plans to use against U.S. aircraft carriers in any future conflict overTaiwan, according to an intelligence report made public on Thursday.
Portions of a National Ground Intelligence Centerstudy on the lethal effects of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and high-powered microwave (HPM) weapons revealed that the arms are part of China’s so-called “assassin’s mace” arsenal - weapons that allow a technologically inferiorChina to defeat U.S. military forces.
EMP weapons mimic the gamma-ray pulse caused by a nuclear blast that knocks out all electronics, including computers and automobiles, over wide areas. The phenomenon was discovered in 1962 after an aboveground nuclear test in the Pacific disabled electronics in Hawaii.
The declassified intelligence report, obtained by the private National Security Archive, provides details on China’s EMP weapons and plans for their use. Annual Pentagon reports on China’s military in the past made only passing references to the arms.
“For use against Taiwan, China could detonate at a much lower altitude (30 to 40 kilometers) … to confine the EMP effects to Taiwan and its immediate vicinity and minimize damage to electronics on the mainland,” the report said.
The report, produced in 2005 and once labeled “secret,” stated that Chinese military writings have discussed building low-yield EMP warheads, but “it is not known whether [the Chinese] have actually done so.”
The report said that in addition to EMP weapons, “any low-yield strategic nuclear warhead (or tactical nuclear warheads) could be used with similar effects.”
“The DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile has been mentioned as a platform for the EMP attack against Taiwan,” the report said.
According to the report, China’s electronic weapons are part of what are called “trump card” or “assassin’s mace” weapons that “are based on new technology that has been developed in high secrecy.”
“Trump card would be applicable if the Chinese have developed new low-yield, possibly enhanced, EMP warheads, while assassin’s mace would apply if older warheads are employed,” the report said.
According to the report, China conducted EMP tests on mice, rats, rabbits, dogs and monkeys that produced eye, brain, bone marrow and other organ injuries. It stated that “it is clear the real purpose of the Chinese medical experiments is to learn the potential human effects of exposure to powerful EMP and [high-powered microwave] radiation.”
North Korea Tests ‘Super-EMP’ Nuke
I still maintain that EMP attack is a “low probability, high impact” event, but the news story linked to here definitely makes it seem more probable as nuclear programs among the “rogue” countries progress. Well worth reading that full article. SS
For many years U.S. Intelligence agencies believed that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program was a failure due to the low explosive yield of their tests. According to EMPact America’s President and former CIA nuclear weapons analyst Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, this is not the case:
North Korea’s last round of tests, conducted in May 2009, appear to have included a “super-EMP” weapon, capable of emitting enough gamma rays to disable the electric power grid across most of the lower 48 states, says Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, a former CIA nuclear weapons analyst and president of EMPact America, a citizens lobbying group.
…
North Korea’s nuclear tests have been dismissed as failures by some analysts because of their low explosive yield. But Dr. Pry believes they bore the “signature” of the Russian-designed “super-EMP” weapon, capable of emitting more gamma radiation than a 25-megaton nuclear weapon.
Pry believes the U.S. intelligence community was expecting North Korea to test a first generation implosion device with an explosive yield of 10 to 20 kilotons, similar to the bomb the U.S. exploded over Nagasaki in 1945. He said, “So when they saw one that put off just three kilotons, they said it failed. That is so implausible.”
Source: Newsmax
Since EMP is a line-of-sight weapon, detonating one of these nukes about 300 miles above Nebraska could end life as we know it in America in about one second.
While North Korea may be the latest country to test such a weapon, it is clear that the technology has been available for nearly 50 years, and it has since been leaked to rogue nations, and perhaps rogue terror and shadow elements with the financing, capability and wherewithal to use it:
Such a weapon — equal to a massive solar flare such as the “solar maxima” predicted by NASA to occur in 2012 — poses “substantial risk to equipment and operation of the nation’s power grid and under extreme conditions could result in major long term electrical outages,” said Joseph McClelland of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in Senate testimony last month.
Pry said that a group of Russian nuclear weapons scientists approached him in 2004 when he served as staff director of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, to warn the United States that the technology to make that weapon “had leaked” to North Korea, and possibly to Iran.
When we talk about potential terrorist action against the United States, we discuss this in the sphere of any organization, be it Al Queda, state sponsored, or shadow government related. These weapons exist, and they are, without a doubt, the single biggest threat to the United States of America.
As we’ve previously reported, such a weapon, or group of weapons strategically detonated at lower altitudes, would completely wipe out the entire US power grid, vehicles, computers, cell phones, and anything else with an electric circuit.
The fall out would be nothing short of apocalyptic.
In July of 2010 EMPact America published an overview of the EMP 2010 Conference in which they discussed the threat EMP posed to the nation and the fact that very few people understand how great and imminent it is:
…An electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, is a super energetic radio wave that’s immediately harmless to people, but it’ll burn out all the critical electronic systems that sustain human economic activity and human life across vast areas, including the entire continental United States.
-Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, President, EMPact America
The Center for Security Policy, in a report issued last year, has estimated that in the event of a wide-scale EMP attack on the United States, as many as nine out of ten Americans would be dead within one year:
“Within a year of that attack, nine out of 10 Americans would be dead, because we can’t support a population of the present size in urban centers and the like without electricity,” said Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy. “And that is exactly what I believe the Iranians are working towards.”
North Koreans, Iranians, terrorists (Al Queda or otherwise), it doesn’t really matter.
What does matter is that very few Americans are prepared for such an outlier.
The first 24 – 48 hours after such an occurrence will lead to confusion among the general population as traditional news acquisition sources like television, radio and cell phone networks will be non-functional.
Within a matter of days, once people realize the power might not be coming back on and grocery store shelves start emptying, the entire system will begin to delve into chaos.
Within 30 days a mass die off will have begun as food supplies dwindle, looters and gangs turn to violent extremes, medicine can’t be restocked and water pump stations fail.
For those interested in learning more about the after-effects of EMP and several different scenarios in which you may find yourself, we strongly recommend reading / watching the following:
- One Second After by William Forstchen
- Lights Out by David Crawford
- Patriots by James Rawles
- Jericho TV show (via Netflix or iTunes)
With the information gained you’ll theoretically have a working knowledge of the supplies you’ll need for extended grid-down situations. Additionally, each story deals with a slightly different setting, so you’ll have an understanding of the organizational and defense requirements necessary to secure and manage an individual property, small community neighborhood, and an entire town.
Power outages happen all the time. But you’ll know an EMP has been detonated (or we’ve been hit by a massive solar event) if the power to your house goes off, cars are not starting, and your cell phone won’t turn on. If that happens, take a deep breath, say a prayer, and put the supplies and knowledge you’ve acquired to work, because it won’t be long before the golden horde wrecks havoc.
Related and Recommended Reading:
Congressman Warns: “Those Who Can, Should Move Their Families Out Of the City”
A Guide to Looting When the SHTF (And Your Counter-Strategies)
11 Emergency Food Items That Can Last a Lifetime
What Is The Best Place To Live In The United States
Author: Mac Slavo
Date: June 20th, 2011
Website: www.SHTFplan.com
Many thanks to Mac for permission to repost.
electromagnetic-pulse asked: I'm concerned about the EMP topic. I know it's a scary thought and it needs to have more attention put on it. I feel as though the people who claim to know about it, really don't. When I heard about EMP I started to look more into it. I think that your followers are truly interested in different enviromental happenings. There is a guy named Curtis Birnbach that actually knows a lot about EMP, he's going to be on this site on Wednesaday: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/empact-radio/2011/06/01/empact-radio-with-dr-peter-vincent-pry I hope that you check it out & your follwe - - - I think that your follwers would be interested !!!
EMP, thanks for the suggestion. I’ll give it a listen.
I knew about EMP as a phenomena for a long time, but it never really struck me fully until I read William Forstchen’s “One Second After”. In my opinion, that book is one of the most realistically presented works in the post-apocalyptic genre.
After I read it I was fairly disturbed for a while and spent a lot of time reading the report from the EMP Commission. The potential EMP threat was even making the news in late 2010 at USAToday. That article is worth the read. Here’s another report by an Air Force guy titled “EMP Threats in 2010”.
However, as I began to take a more centered approach to preparation and the types of events I prepare for I started looking at the list in terms of impact and probability.
An EMP event that put us back into the world we lived in several centuries ago is a “high impact, low probability” scenario.
Is it a threat? Yes.
Is it as likely as an earthquake, tornado, or pandemic? I honestly don’t think it is.
Here’s the most common scenario presented for EMP events - besides a large solar flare (coronal mass ejection):
A small EMP-optimized nuke launched from a container ship in the Gulf of Mexico could take out the power grid of the entire continental United States. The same thing could be done anywhere, like Europe or Japan. Source
A commenter, Ben, on the post linked above effectively summarizes my thoughts on EMP:
For EMP Doomsday to be a risk, there must be a group out there with the following:
1. the capability to build a nuke small and rugged enough to fit on a ballistic missile and make it “EMP-optimised” – this is technology advanced enough that it requires the resources of a state
2. suitable ballistic missile technology
3. a desire to cause chaos in the US, triggering a massive global depression and wrecking everyone’s economies
4. the willingness to risk nuclear retaliation given that the source of the attack could be traced using informers, or satellite imagery of the launch correlated with shipping records, or possibly the characteristics of the device. The one part of Western society that would function well after the EMP attack is the military.
No state in the world has these things. North Korea and Iran don’t currently have the technology; I doubt India and Pakistan do either, and neither of those has the motivation; none of the remaining nuclear states with the technical capability to do the attack (which I make UK, France, Israel, China, Russia) would want to wreck a huge trading partner.
Nobody who can presently do it would want to. You could make up a political scenario where tension between the US and Pakistan or China, or the technology level of Iran, might greatly increase in the next few decades. But if an aggressor state was considering a first strike, why would it limit its initial attack to a single EMP missile, while inviting a full nuclear attack in response? Source
I do think this is as real a threat as nuclear war, but the probability is low that someone will be able to pull it off any time soon. I find it hard to believe that the critical military functions needed to respond to such an attack would not already hardened. The rest of our infrastructure, well, that’s another matter.
If it ever does happen, we’re screwed. In that case, use your preps to survive while you learn to live like the pioneers. :) My philosophy is that if you prepare for the more probable threats, you will eventually be prepared for the less probable ones.
Thanks for reading and keep posting. Your new Tumblr is relevant to my interests.
Left-wing perspective on Right-wing & Evangelicals fear of EMP threat
I try hard to present numerous sides of arguments here lest I sound biased and fear-mongering. Here is a liberal assessment of the political and religious impetus behind the fear of EMP attack.
I have to say, I’ve spent a good deal of time researching this, and it is a “high impact, low probability” scenario, much like nuclear war. I’m not ready to discount it as a possibility, but it’s much less likely than a variety of other threats.
Read the full story here.
'Solar Katrina' Could Blindside Us - Aug 18 - 2010
(NEWSER) – America is woefully underprepared for a looming natural disaster with the potential to be much worse than Hurricane Katrina, warns disaster expert Lawrence E. Joseph. Scientists believe a solar storm of a size not seen since 1921 is likely to hit the earth after solar activity picks up in 2012, sending out an electromagnetic pulse that could fry transformers and put electricity grids offline for months, Joseph writes in the New York Times. Such an event would compromise the food and water supply as well as national security and even basic law enforcement, Joseph warns. We could protect the grid for about $250 million by installing surge protectors—giant versions of the devices used to protect home computers—nationwide, Joseph argues, but while the House has passed a bill requiring grid protection, the Senate’s version of the bill contains no such measure. Lawmakers will be making a grave mistake if they fail to fix this omission while the bill is in conference, Joseph concludes.
EMP Threat just a Scare Tactic? | The Nation
So, here’s a liberal take on the EMP threat from the Nation. This does make me wonder if the EMP threat is being used like the threat of WMD’s was used to justify the war in Iraq. I’ve done a lot of reading on this, including the report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack from 2004 with the 2008 infrastructures update.
Normalcy bias from the left or fear mongering by the right? Think critically. Draw your own conclusions.
Perhaps the high point of the film was when Frank Gaffney, the extreme-right militarist who leads an outfit called the Center for Security Policy in Washington—waxed poetic about how Iran could soon be able to detonate a nuclear “electromagnetic pulse” (EMP) weapon in the American heartland that would, he warned, “take down the entire power grid” across the United States. Not only that, said Gaffney and others, but this “strategic EMP attack” would destroy everything in the United States that relies on electronics, and with a few years “nine out of every ten Americans could be dead.” This, Gaffney warned, with a serious face that made it clear that he wasn’t joking, was to carry out Iran’s “stated purpose of bringing about a world without America.”
Professor William Forstchen, author of “One Second After”, speaking on Coast to Coast about the EMP threat. Read the book if you get the chance.
(Source: youtube.com)
EMP: America's Achilles' Heel - Hillsdale College - Imprimis Issue
Here’s a good review of EMP attack from an authoritative source although some would strongly debate that. Another must read…
If Osama bin Laden—or the dictators of North Korea or Iran—could destroy America as a twenty-first century society and superpower, would they be tempted to try? Given their track records and stated hostility to the United States, we have to operate on the assumption that they would. That assumption would be especially frightening if this destruction could be accomplished with a single attack involving just one relatively small-yield nuclear weapon—and if the nature of the attack would mean that its perpetrator might not be immediately or easily identified.
Unfortunately, such a scenario is not far-fetched. According to a report issued last summer by a blue-ribbon, Congressionally-mandated commission, a single specialized nuclear weapon delivered to an altitude of a few hundred miles over the United States by a ballistic missile would be “capable of causing catastrophe for the nation.” The source of such a cataclysm might be considered the ultimate “weapon of mass destruction” (WMD)—yet it is hardly ever mentioned in the litany of dangerous WMDs we face today. It is known as electromagnetic pulse (EMP).
