A Skeptical Survivalist

This is the question CNN asked 5 experts on Iran and Middle Eastern politics.  You should read their full responses, but I have highlighted some quotes that seem to capture the things they agree on.  To answer the question, they all agree that war doesn’t have to happen but that the situation is volatile enough that it could happen quickly if any sort of escalation event set things in motion. 

All of this talk of war based on supposed possession of weapons of mass destruction reminds me of our entry into war in Iraq.  We’re being prepped for the next war.  

“As long as (the Iranians) shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent,” U.S. President Barack Obama said Tuesday night in his State of the Union speech. “Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal. But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better.”

Last week, Obama’s former national security adviser said he thought this could be the year that things finally come to a head.

“I think 2012 has seen itself as the year that Iran has got to be dealt with one way or the other,” said James L. Jones, speaking at a panel discussion in Washington.

Shireen T. Hunter 

“The two sides are moving perilously close to a situation where there seems to be only one option left: military confrontation. But war doesn’t have to be inevitable.”

Meir Javedanfar 

“This will be the year that Khamenei will have to make a decision about Iran’s nuclear program.”

Jon B. Alterman

“While the possibility remains that one side will pursue a limited war, it is more likely that the sides will stumble into a war that no side is seeking. Given the high alert on all sides, a rogue action or even a mistaken one can quickly turn into a shooting war.”

Kelly Golnoush Niknejad

“This heightened tension is very dangerous, especially given the lack of diplomatic relations between Iran and the United States. There is no hot line. There is no real channel of communication like there was with the Soviet Union during the height of the Cold War. A misunderstanding or miscalculation may lead to a war.”

Patrick Clawson

“Both Iran and the United States have approached the nuclear issue as a marathon, not as a sprint. But the finish line is in sight.

After 20 years of dispute, 2012 may well show whether Washington’s or Tehran’s approach has been more successful.

Within a few years, Iran will be treated by the world as a country that, if it does not already have nuclear warheads atop its missiles, could quickly do so. As that point nears, Iran has less reason to negotiate over the nuclear issue.”

This will not end well. We all knew it was going to get super ugly at some point, but it looks like that time might be sooner than thought.  Maybe some super diplomat will be able to negotiate something. I’m not holding my breath. I remain neutral on this debate. Both sides have acted horribly. 

JERUSALEM — With revolutionary fervor sweeping the Middle East, Israel is under mounting pressure to make a far-reaching offer to the Palestinians or face a United Nations vote welcoming the State of Palestine as a member whose territory includes all of the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem.

Palestinian Authority has been steadily building support for such a resolution in September, a move that could place Israel into a diplomatic vise. Israel would be occupying land belonging to a fellow United Nations member, land it has controlled and settled for more than four decades and some of which it expects to keep in any two-state solution.

“We are facing a diplomatic-political tsunami that the majority of the public is unaware of and that will peak in September,” said Ehud Barak, Israel’s defense minister, at a conference in Tel Aviv last month. “It is a very dangerous situation, one that requires action.” He added, “Paralysis, rhetoric, inaction will deepen the isolation of Israel.”

“Does the world think it is going to force Israel to declare the 1967 lines and giving up Jerusalem as a basis for negotiation?” asked a top Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity. “That will never happen.”

Rising food prices, which climbed a record high of 25% in 2010, is adding to inflationary pressures in the Middle East and affecting a significant population in many countries in the region, QNB Capital said in a release.

According to QNB Capital, the index of global food prices maintained by the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) rose by 25% in 2010. The index surpassed the previous record in June 2008 and then increased by a further 9.9% in the first two months of 2011.

According to the World Bank, the world is nearing a “breaking point” as food prices are squeezing the poorest in society; those who spend a substantial part of their income on food. This phenomenon is also affecting a significant part of the population in many countries in the Middle East.

Food prices are near record levels and still expected to increase further.

The World Bank’s own food price index is near record levels, having increased 15% between October 2010 and January 2011. The World Bank further expects prices to remain high this year. In line with this, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is forecasting a 19% rise.

While the last food price spike coincided with an economic boom, the current spike comes when many governments in the region are struggling with deep deficits, still a result of the global financial crisis. In the current situation, affected governments have less bandwidth to respond to food price inflation by boosting food subsidies or wages.

Source - Gulf Times