Showing posts tagged Skepticism

Terror 2012: Be Very Afraid - War with Iran Update: Feb 2nd

Currently, if you believe the news, THERE IS A LOT TO BE AFRAID OF.  Fear has been a constant in the US since 9/11 and the creation and manipulation of the fears of the average American has become a powerful tool that is used daily to justify a staggering number of atrocities and infringements on our rights.

Terrorists are old hat after Osama bit the dust, but we still have doubled the number of people on the no-fly lists in the past year. 

The U.S. government’s list of suspected terrorists who are banned from flying to the United States or within its borders has more than doubled over the past year, a counterterrorism official told CNN Thursday.

The “no fly” list produced by the FBI now has approximately 21,000 names on it, according to the official, who has knowledge of the government’s figures. One year ago about 10,000 individuals were on it.

Only about 500 people currently on the no-fly list are Americans, the official said.

But we have even bigger Villains now! If you haven’t noticed Iran is in the news daily.  

The latest annual US Intelligence community’s threat assessment report had this to say:

As for Iran, the report said it will attempt to “undermine any strategic partnership between the United States and Afghanistan” and it continues to play a destabilizing role across the globe. The report cites the plot last year to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States and concern about “Iranian plotting against U.S. or allied interests.”

 ”The 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States shows that some Iranian officials - probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime,” the report said.

If you remember the supposed plot to kill the Saudi ambassador, then you should consider how bogus that whole scenario was and view it as more pretense to begin the move up to war with Iran.

But Clapper goes on to say:

Iran has the technical ability to build a nuclear weapon, Clapper said. But he, CIA Director David Petraeus and others reasserted their stance that Iran is not building nuclear weapons, [WTF??] in subtle contrast to Israeli officials’ statements that Iran could have nuclear capability within a year.

That was just the opening volley - the stories grow by the day.

Today the Washington Post’s David Ignatius wrote that U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta “believes there is strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June - before Iran enters what Israelis described as a ‘zone of immunity’ to commence building a nuclear bomb.”

In fact Israel may very well do that. They are dying to get U.S. permission to do so, but they could decide to go at it on their own even if it risks hurting their ties with the US and the billions of dollars we give them.  

This week Israel, in an effort to stoke the fear and pressure the US to take action, said that:

Iran is developing a missile capable of delivering payloads up to 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) away, Israel’s vice prime minister charged Thursday.

Speaking to Israel’s annual Herzliya national security conference, Moshe Ya’alon, who also serves as Israel’s minister for strategic affairs, suggested that an Iranian military compound that mysteriously blew up late last year was developing a long-range missile capable of hitting the United States.

Ya’alon said the project was “aimed at America, not us” and said it served as further argument that Iran posed a “military problem” that needed to be stopped.

Today Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi said:

Iran has completed the development of a nuclear weapon and awaits nothing more than a sign from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to start assembling its first nuclear bomb.  

by the end of 2012 or early 2013 Iran may have a single nuclear bomb, but by 2015 the figure would jump to four or five.

The officer was essentially amplifying the words of his predecessor, Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, who said on Jan. 26 that as long ago as 2007 or 2008, Iran had already passed the point of no return in developing nuclear weapons.  

His comments coincided with the findings published Thursday by the Enterprise Institute, an American think tank, that Iran would be able to manufacture a 15-kiloton nuclear bomb as soon as August of this year, just seven months from now.

Along the same lines, responding to YET ANOTHER fucking think tank, the chairman of the House intelligence committee told CNN that the U.S. military needs to do more to “scare” Iran away from pursuing nuclear weapons.

Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Michigan, made the comment in response to a question about a new report by the Bipartisan Policy Center that says the United States must put more teeth into its threat to use military power to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

In an interview with CNN, Rogers said more needs to be done: “I’m not saying we ought to bomb Iran, but you almost have to scare them, you have to frighten them to get to the right place.”

In order to stop Iran’s nuclear clock, the report said, the United States “needs to make clear that Iran faces a choice: it can either abandon its nuclear program through a negotiated arrangement or have its program destroyed militarily, by the United States.” 

Yesterday SHTFPlan reported on a DEBKAFile story about a large massing of US troops on several islands in the GULF.  

President Barack Obama is reported exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and Washington sources to have secretly ordered US air, naval and marine forces to build up heavy concentrations on two strategic islands –Socotra, which is part of a Yemeni archipelago in the Indian Ocean, and the Omani island of Masirah at the southern exit of the Strait of Hormuz.

Since 2010, the US has been quietly building giant air force and naval bases on Socotra with facilities for submarines, intelligence command centers and take-off pads for flying stealth drones, as part of a linked chain of strategic US military facilities in the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf.

Like any article that can’t name sources I take it with a grain of salt. If this is true, then another Middle Eastern Oil War is just around the corner.

Whether or not this is viable information, Iran is squarely in the cross-hairs of Israel and the U.S. right now.  

I don’t pretend to understand all of the motivations and political interests at stake, I’m just watching the rhetoric and where it is leading.  You know what happened the last time we went after WMD’s and what a crock of shit that turned out to be.

Question everything. Don’t believe the hype. Why would Iran be stupid enough to attack the US?  They aren’t as crazy as Al Queda - we KNOW where they live and we DO have nuclear weapons.  Lots of them.


climateadaptation said: Hi, tell me about skeptical survivalism. Must be a summary, paper, thread, or something under 30 pages that describes your perspective, yes? Best, Michael

Ps I'm truly intrigued. Not bs'n



Thank you for your interest in the theme I’m working from with the stories I share. You ask about skeptical survivalism. I’ll try to give a quick synopsis of my motivations.

I’m concerned about the impact of rapid climate change, peak oil, food shortages, ballooning population expansion, extremism, religious conflicts, and the political unrest that result from all of these factors.  I don’t think the world will end, but I do believe that in the next few decades there is potential for any number of what I call Dramatic Change Events, sometimes referred to as “black swans”.

There is always that potential, we all know that, but I believe the confluence of these factors, which seem to be nearing levels previously unseen in the age we live in, raises the probability of us having to deal with some sort of survival scenario in our lifetime.

Whether it’s record flooding, record tornados, record population levels, or food and water shortages, or any of the other myriad concerns, it seems probable that life as we know could be affected in dramatic ways.

However, here’s where the skepticism comes in. When you dig into these concepts and issues, the topics quickly change to conspiracy theories and speculation, loosely associated facts used to form strong assumptions.

I make assumptions, but I realize that many of them are things I accept because I take a ‘leap of faith’ at the end and decide the proof is good enough for me, but knowing that I would never feel comfortable saying “This is an absolute fact. You should believe it as well”. 

So, I’m skeptical in that I work hard to keep from drawing too many hard and fast conclusions, but rather reserve judgment when I can without completely losing my point of view and voice.

For example, I think there is a trend in the mass animal and fish deaths, despite the common arguments that it happens every year and now we are just hearing about it more. I believe that human generated pollution and climate change are bringing it about in many ways. I’ve gone into some of the scientific research behind the causes of algal blooms in this post. I also look at the extreme winter weather we’ve had which has caused oxygen deprivation in so many lakes. Can’t really prove it with no room for doubt though.  Still yet, no one of importance is looking for these connections, so I’m following it for my own interest.

I dislike extremists, fundamentalist/literalist black and white thinking, and many of the other ideologies I see expressed by people who are drawn to survivalism. I felt that there needed to be a voice in the survivalist community who doesn’t try to blame every problem we have on Barack Obama, globalism, the loss of Christian ideals, or the NWO [to name just a few pet causes].

So, I share Doomer type stories on several major themes as an environmental scan of current events that may or may not be related. I mostly leave it up to the reader to do the math and see where it all fits together. And I encourage critical thinking, to the point where you question your own assumptions as well as those of others.

The end goal is for me to be better prepared to survive natural disasters, inflation, food shortages, or any less probable, but worse, scenarios. To be better able to take care of and protect my family. That’s all that matters to me.

I defined my perspective further in the introductory post when I began writing here. It should give you more perspective on where I’m coming from.

Thanks again for your interest.  I hope the information I share can be helpful.  

PS - the link to was behind a paywall.  I find links to their site regularly that I’d like to see but require the subscription. I have the title of the post from the 2 seconds it’s visible before the login prompt comes up, so I’ll dig into it a bit more from other sources. Definitely relevant to my interests.